Goldman Sachs expects South Africa's rand to extend gains as conditions improve
The rand may clock another year of gains supported by easing interest rates, with firmer public finances also boosting South Africa's domestic economy, Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
The currency ended 2025 nearly 13% stronger against the US dollar, marking its biggest annual gain in 16 years as the greenback weakened broadly.
Strength this year could come from a scenario of steady global growth and gradual US interest rate cuts.
The bank said South Africa's risk-sensitive currency also stands to benefit from its exposure to precious metal prices and comparatively lower near-term political risk than peers facing elections in 2026.
Investors are increasingly rotating towards emerging markets, where domestic demand is recovering and monetary policy is becoming less restrictive, the note said.
BANKS, RETAILERS TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER RATES
South Africa is grouped alongside India and Brazil as markets where easing inflation and lower borrowing costs could bolster interest-rate-sensitive assets.
In equities, Goldman expects the country's banks and retailers to benefit from lower interest rates and an improvement in credit conditions while mining stocks take advantage of firmer gold prices.
On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index last traded down 0.8%, with the nation's benchmark 2035 government bond weakening by 8 basis points to 8.37% on Thursday.
The rand traded around 16.50 against the dollar, on the backfoot for much of the day as domestic investors assessed dour manufacturing sector releases.
A survey showed that South Africa's manufacturing sentiment fell in December to its lowest level for 2025.
A statistics agency report published two hours later, pointed to a contraction of 1.0% in manufacturing output for November, defying analysts' expectations of a 0.2% increase.
Article Enquiry
Email Article
Save Article
Feedback
To advertise email advertising@creamermedia.co.za or click here
Comments
Research Reports
Projects
Latest Multimedia
Latest News
Showroom
Occupational health services, mobile clinics, wellness campaigns, aviation.
VISIT SHOWROOM
Avlock International is a leading manufacturer and distributor of Specialized Fastening Systems.
VISIT SHOWROOM
Press Office
Announcements
What's On
Subscribe to improve your user experience...
Option 1 (equivalent of R125 a month):
Receive a weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine
(print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
Receive daily email newsletters
Access to full search results
Access archive of magazine back copies
Access to Projects in Progress
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
Option 2 (equivalent of R375 a month):
All benefits from Option 1
PLUS
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports, in PDF format, on various industrial and mining sectors
including Electricity; Water; Energy Transition; Hydrogen; Roads, Rail and Ports; Coal; Gold; Platinum; Battery Metals; etc.
Already a subscriber?
Forgotten your password?
Receive weekly copy of Creamer Media's Engineering News & Mining Weekly magazine (print copy for those in South Africa and e-magazine for those outside of South Africa)
➕
Recieve daily email newsletters
➕
Access to full search results
➕
Access archive of magazine back copies
➕
Access to Projects in Progress
➕
Access to ONE Research Report of your choice in PDF format
RESEARCH CHANNEL AFRICA
R4500 (equivalent of R375 a month)
SUBSCRIBEAll benefits from Option 1
➕
Access to Creamer Media's Research Channel Africa for ALL Research Reports on various industrial and mining sectors, in PDF format, including on:
Electricity
➕
Water
➕
Energy Transition
➕
Hydrogen
➕
Roads, Rail and Ports
➕
Coal
➕
Gold
➕
Platinum
➕
Battery Metals
➕
etc.
Receive all benefits from Option 1 or Option 2 delivered to numerous people at your company
➕
Multiple User names and Passwords for simultaneous log-ins
➕
Intranet integration access to all in your organisation
